Monthly Outlook: November 2026
Financial Market Performance | Global Economic Indicators Update | FX Commentary and Range Forecasts | Calendar of Key Market Events
Market Tone
Energy-driven inflation and fiscal anxiety dominated October, as the Middle East conflict lifted crude more than 15%, forcing central banks to weigh further tightening. Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz sustained a geopolitical premium, though reports of renewed negotiations steadied sentiment late in the month.
Sterling gained against the dollar, supported by firm domestic data and a Budget that markets received calmly, whilst it reached 17-month highs against the plunging euro.
The euro slid as French politics and a contracting economy weighed on sentiment. The dollar drew support from hot inflation, with US CPI at 3.7%, though the Federal Reserve held at 3.75–4% and left a December hike likely. Bond markets recovered somewhat: the US ten-year yield finished at 4.94%, having touched 5.31%.
Equities were mixed, while Gold continued its losing streak on the back of higher yields. Inflation data and the December policy meetings will determine the month ahead.
Stock Indexes
| Stock Indexes | EOM Price | 1M %Chg | YTD %Chg | 1M High | 1M Low | YTD High | YTD Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,580 | -0.93% | 10.73% | 7,845 | 7,528 | 7,845 | 6,317 |
| Dow Jones | 51,770 | 1.70% | 7.71% | 52,928 | 50,548 | 54,744 | 45,057 |
| Nasdaq | 25,437 | -5.30% | 9.44% | 27,721 | 25,177 | 27,721 | 20,690 |
| FTSE 100 | 10,013 | -6.19% | 0.72% | 10,920 | 9,994 | 10,920 | 9,912 |
| DAX | 25,818 | 2.46% | 5.42% | 26,106 | 24,793 | 26,619 | 21,864 |
| Nikkei 225 | 63,290 | -5.19% | 25.73% | 70,799 | 61,463 | 72,832 | 50,559 |
| Hang Seng | 23,294 | -5.36% | -9.11% | 24,613 | 22,804 | 28,056 | 22,518 |
Commodities
| Commodities | EOM Price | 1M %Chg | YTD %Chg | 1M High | 1M Low | YTD High | YTD Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 113.40 | 15.68% | 86.39% | 116.58 | 100.12 | 118.14 | 59.96 |
| WTI Crude | 104.06 | 15.14% | 81.29% | 104.06 | 88.22 | 112.85 | 55.99 |
| Gold | 3,876 | -6.77% | -10.40% | 4,225 | 3,870 | 5,595 | 3,870 |
| Silver | 49.12 | -18.67% | -31.26% | 62.08 | 48.87 | 121.60 | 48.87 |
| Bitcoin | 76,772 | -8.24% | -12.41% | 87,249 | 76,141 | 97,764 | 57,718 |
Bonds
| Bonds | EOM Price | 1M %Chg | YTD %Chg | 1M High | 1M Low | YTD High | YTD Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 3-Month | 4.16% | -0.95% | 13.35% | 4.28% | 4.16% | 4.28% | 3.62% |
| US 2-Year | 4.56% | -6.56% | 31.41% | 4.84% | 4.56% | 4.92% | 3.38% |
| US 10-Year | 4.94% | -6.62% | 18.18% | 5.31% | 4.94% | 5.31% | 3.97% |
| UK 10-Year | 5.29% | -2.33% | 18.28% | 5.49% | 5.29% | 5.49% | 4.29% |
| Germany 10-Year | 3.32% | -7.25% | 16.14% | 3.53% | 3.32% | 3.63% | 2.64% |
| Japan 10-Year | 2.77% | -9.30% | 34.09% | 3.13% | 2.77% | 3.13% | 2.06% |
Key Data
Currency Performance
| EOM Price | 5D (%) | 1M (%) | YTD (%) | 1Y (%) | 1M High | 1M Low | 1Y High | 1Y Low | 20 DMA | 100 DMA | 14D Vol (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | 1.3390 | 0.11% | 0.95% | -0.43% | 1.82% | 1.3434 | 1.3137 | 1.3867 | 1.3010 | 1.3302 | 1.3387 | 5.09% |
| GBPEUR | 1.2000 | 0.50% | 2.50% | 4.69% | 5.53% | 1.2016 | 1.1699 | 1.2016 | 1.1278 | 1.1879 | 1.1712 | 2.10% |
| EURUSD | 1.1159 | -0.39% | -1.51% | -4.89% | -3.51% | 1.1337 | 1.1105 | 1.2081 | 1.1105 | 1.1198 | 1.1432 | 4.65% |
| GBPCHF | 1.1047 | 0.11% | -0.35% | 3.52% | 4.74% | 1.1105 | 1.0891 | 1.1105 | 1.0293 | 1.1018 | 1.0913 | 3.47% |
| GBPAUD | 1.9041 | 0.15% | -0.30% | -5.56% | -5.09% | 1.9228 | 1.8859 | 2.0473 | 1.8540 | 1.9021 | 1.9036 | 7.86% |
| GBPNZD | 2.3780 | 1.33% | 0.99% | 1.73% | 3.83% | 2.4815 | 2.3357 | 2.4815 | 2.2401 | 2.3587 | 2.3232 | 5.99% |
| GBPCNY | 8.9200 | -0.10% | 0.30% | -5.22% | -4.62% | 8.9550 | 8.7970 | 10.8480 | 8.7970 | 8.8920 | 9.0150 | 4.97% |
| GBPJPY | 210.97 | 0.55% | 1.04% | 0.01% | 4.08% | 211.99 | 207.61 | 219.61 | 199.07 | 210.07 | 213.15 | 5.15% |
| GBPCAD | 1.8710 | -0.11% | -0.89% | 1.38% | 1.73% | 1.8926 | 1.8608 | 1.9044 | 1.8021 | 1.8788 | 1.8803 | 3.35% |
Economic Indicators
| GDP Growth | Interest Rate | Inflation Rate | Jobless Rate | Debt/GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.40% | 4.00% | 3.70% | 4.20% | 123.00% |
| China | 1.20% | 3.00% | 0.90% | 5.20% | 99.20% |
| Euro Area | 0.40% | 2.65% | 3.80% | 6.50% | 87.70% |
| Japan | 0.40% | 1.25% | 2.10% | 2.40% | 249.00% |
| Germany | 0.20% | 0.00% | 2.80% | 6.40% | 62.80% |
| United Kingdom | 0.50% | 3.75% | 3.50% | 4.70% | 94.30% |
| India | 1.80% | 5.50% | 5.54% | 5.00% | 81.85% |
| Canada | 0.80% | 2.50% | 3.10% | 6.50% | 114.00% |
| Australia | 0.40% | 4.60% | 4.30% | 4.70% | 18.80% |
| Switzerland | 1.50% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 3.00% | 14.80% |
Chart of The Month
US Inflation Surged Amid Energy Shock
- Annual US inflation rose to 3.7% in September 2026, exceeding the 3.6% forecast and driven largely by a 34.2% yearly surge in petrol prices linked to the Iran war.
- Monthly consumer prices climbed 0.6%, the sharpest rise in five months, with petrol accounting for over half that increase, reflecting renewed Middle Eastern tensions pushing fuel costs higher.
- Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also surprised to the upside, rising to 2.6% from 2.4%, with broad price pressures spreading into cars, airfares, education, and housing.
- The data has increased bets on further Federal Reserve rate rises, with real wages falling for a sixth consecutive month and household affordability worsening ahead of November's midterm elections.
Currency Snapshot
GBP/USD
Sterling Shrugs Off the Budget
Sterling spent the month pinned in the mid-$1.32s vs the dollar, dipping on hot US inflation before breaking above $1.34 on hot UK inflation, and then shrugging off a Budget that markets met with indifference. A collapse in consumer confidence tempered the mood, but the pound ended October on the front foot.
GBP/EUR
17-Month Highs
GBPEUR climbed more than 3% across five straight weeks of gains to brush €1.20 for the first time since early 2025, a level that felt unfathomable only a month earlier. The catalysts were hawkish BoE pricing and a single currency weighed down by France.
EUR/USD
The France Effect
The euro spent October flitting around $1.12, repeatedly recapturing the level and then surrendering it as French yields crossed 5% and eurozone data disappointed. A hold from the ECB at 2.5% and a contracting French economy underlined the single currency's losses.
Projected Ranges
| Expected Low | Expected High | Extreme Low | Extreme High | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | 1.3112 | 1.3670 | 1.2947 | 1.3835 |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1883 | 1.2111 | 1.1815 | 1.2179 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0934 | 1.1382 | 1.0802 | 1.1514 |
| GBP/CHF | 1.0877 | 1.1219 | 1.0776 | 1.1320 |
| GBP/CAD | 1.8439 | 1.8983 | 1.8279 | 1.9143 |
| GBP/AUD | 1.8484 | 1.9580 | 1.8162 | 1.9902 |
Price forecasts show the furthest each currency pair could move in a single direction — either up or down — from spot, based on historical volatilities and expected returns across a 21-day period. The Base forecast (68%) covers the most likely moves; the Wide forecast (95%) covers more extreme scenarios. These are statistical estimates and do not reflect opinion or anticipated events. The projections are intramonth ranges, not terminal (period-end) rates.
Learn how forward contracts can fix a rate
Last Month's Performance
October was the third month we've run our updated range projection model, which includes the addition of a few extra GBP pairs (GBPCHF, GBPCAD, and GBPAUD). The euro's downturn produced an upside breach of our +1 and +2 standard deviation boundaries for GBPEUR, otherwise our model's expected intramonth high-and -low ranges held for each pair we track.
Calendar of Events
United Kingdom
- 05-Nov – BoE Interest Rate Decision
- 12-Nov – GDP (m/m)
- 17-Nov – Unemployment Rate
- 18-Nov – Inflation Rate
- 20-Nov – Retail Sales
- 20-Nov – Consumer Confidence
- 23-Nov – Services & Manufacturing PMIs
Euro Area & Germany
- 04-Nov – Euro Area Inflation Rate
- 13-Nov – Euro Area GDP Growth Rate
- 17-Nov – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 17-Nov – Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 23-Nov – Euro Area Services & Manufacturing PMI
- 23-Nov – Germany Services & Manufacturing PMI
- 24-Nov – Ifo Germany Business Climate
- 25-Nov – Germany GDP Growth Rate
- 26-Nov – Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence
- 30-Nov – Germany Inflation Rate
- 01-Dec – Euro Area Inflation Rate
United States
- 02-Nov – ISM Services PMI
- 03-Nov – US Midterm Elections
- 06-Nov – Non Farm Payrolls
- 06-Nov – Unemployment Rate
- 10-Nov – Inflation Rate
- 17-Nov – Retail Sales
- 18-Nov – FOMC Minutes
- 23-Nov – Services & Manufacturing PMI
- 25-Nov – Durable Goods Orders
- 25-Nov – Core PCE Price Index
- 25-Nov – GDP Growth Rate
Market Holidays
| Date | Country | Holiday |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 02 Nov | Brazil | All Souls' Day |
| Colombia | All Saint's Day | |
| Ecuador | All Saint's Day | |
| Mauritius | Arrival of Indentured Labourers | |
| Mexico | All Souls' Day | |
| Philippines | All Souls' Day | |
| Tue 03 Nov | Ecuador | Independence Day |
| Japan | Culture Day | |
| Wed 04 Nov | Russia | Unity Day |
| Fri 06 Nov | Morocco | Day of the Green March |
| Mon 09 Nov | Malaysia | Deepavali |
| Tue 10 Nov | India | Diwali-Balipratipada |
| Mongolia | Great Chinggiss Khaan's birthday | |
| Wed 11 Nov | Bermuda | Armistice Day in World War I |
| Poland | Independence Day | |
| Serbia | Armistice Day in World War I | |
| Fri 13 Nov | Montenegro | Bank Holiday |
| Sun 15 Nov | Palestinian Territory | Independence Day |
| Mon 16 Nov | Colombia | Independence Day |
| Mexico | Revolution Day | |
| Tue 17 Nov | Czech Republic | Revolution Day |
| Wed 18 Nov | Croatia | National Day |
| Morocco | Independence Day | |
| Oman | National Day | |
| Venezuela | Feast of Our Lady of the Rosary | |
| Fri 20 Nov | Brazil | Black Awareness Day |
| Sun 22 Nov | Lebanon | Independence Day |
| Mon 23 Nov | Argentina | National Sovereignty and Children Day |
| Japan | Labour Thanksgiving Day | |
| Tue 24 Nov | India | Guru Nanak Jayanti |
| Sri Lanka | Ill Full Moon Poya Day | |
| Vietnam | Culture Day | |
| Wed 25 Nov | Bosnia-Herzegovina | National Day |
| Thu 26 Nov | Mongolia | Republic Day |
| United States | Thanksgiving Day | |
| Fri 27 Nov | Mongolia | Republic Day |
| United States | Thanksgiving Day - Early close at 13:00 | |
| Sat 28 Nov | Mongolia | Republic Day |
| Sun 29 Nov | Mongolia | Republic Day |
| Mon 30 Nov | Philippines | Bonifacio Day |
| Romania | St. Andrew's Day |
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